As noted, NCSoft ended 2024 in a delicate situation, to say the least. Unfortunately, things don’t seem to be getting any better, as the Korean giant enters 2025 with the cancellation of three more projects (Project Pantera, Project H, Project J), while in his New Year’s greetings to employees, Kim Taek-jin declared “if NCsoft doesn’t recover in 2025, the group will have no future”.
Recap of the situation
As a reminder, the last quarterly report showed a workforce reduction of almost 1,000 employees, as well as the cancellation of six projects: PuzzUp Amitoi, Battle Crush, Project Movie, Project E, and two as yet unannounced ones. In addition, last November saw the hearing of the lawsuit opposing the Korean giant to its competitor Kakao games, NCSoft having filed for copyright infringement.
The accusation referred to elements such as the class-switching systems, weapon mechanics, and group objectives of Lineage 2M (2019), which would have been implemented in Kakao Games’ title Archeage War (2023). For the record, the court had postponed the November decision until this January, presumably to allow time to hear from the Red Lab Games developer in December, caught up in a similar argument with NCSoft.
Although this situation may seem negative to us (to you, to me, and of course to investors), NCSoft executives are talking about a “restructuring plan”. We learned that the company would be divided into four independent development studios, of which we now know the names. From now on, FirstSpark Games will be responsible for the development of Throne and Liberty, while BigFire Games will concentrate on the competitive shooter Project LLL, followed by Luduis Games for the strategy MMO Tactan: Knights of the Gods, and NC AI for the production of proprietary AI solutions.
What’s the outlook for 2025?
As we were just telling you, according to information from the MTN portal (always well-informed), the Korean company has once again cancelled three projects: Project Pantera, Project H and Project J. We don’t know what kind of game Project H and Project J were, or how big the development team was. We do, however, have a little more information on Project Pantera, an Idle game based on Lineage M. The latter was very much inspired by Journey of Monarch, another NCSoft Idle game (itself based on Lineage W). While Journey of Monarch achieved a certain level of success, its integration with another Lineage title reportedly caused partial cannibalization of revenues. This overlap seems to have led to debates over whether proceeding with Pantera’s development and launch would be strategically viable.
Nevertheless, as of the afternoon of January 13 (this has presumably not been updated since), the Pantera team remains listed under CBO Seong-gu Lee’s organization. This is not the case for Project H and Project J, which have been removed from the internal organizational structure. In the case of Project H, we know that after the development team was disbanded, the employees were transferred to Lineage IP’s headquarters. It remains to be seen whether development of Project Pantera will indeed be halted.
The MTN article also mentions that a reorganization of the “CCG” team is underway. The team is said to be working on a project code-named ‘GW’, ‘a Hearthstone-type game currently in development. According to MTN, the team is made up of 45 members, including director Hwang Seon-woo. These rumors reinforce the idea of the development of Lion’s Arch: Guild Wars Arena – a project not yet officially announced, but of which a beta version was spotted on Steam DB last summer. Some imagine a trading card game inspired by the Guild Wars universe. Besides, there are also rumors about a shooting game, but no leaks or other information back up this hypothesis as yet.
Project H was NOT Project Skyline
Following the announcement of Project H’s cancellation, we saw a great deal of speculation on both social media and in press, that Project H was in fact Project Skyline (the MMORPG based on the Horizon license). Although everything seems to indicate that NCSoft is indeed working on a Horizon MMORPG, there was no official confirmation that it was Project H. These rumors were fuelled by recent events: among others, Sony’s recent cancellation of two live service games; the announcement in 2023 of a strategic partnership between Sony and NCSoft; and confusion between Project Skyline being previously known as Project H but happening to not be the same Project H as the recently cancelled one (confusing indeed).
The theory has since been debunked on the Ruliweb forum, where journalist Seo Jeong-geun replied to a reader that the cancelled Project H mentioned in his article had “nothing to do with Horizon”.
Lineage 2M vs. ArcheAge WAR: final word
On the legal front, the news isn’t much better. On January 23, the Sixty-third Division of the Seoul Central Court’s Civil Agreements Division ruled in favor of the defendant in the legal dispute between NCSoft and Kakao Games (and its development subsidiary XL Games). In the “ArcheAge War” case, the judgment handed down on January 24 dismissed all NCSoft’s claims against Kakao Games for copyright infringement and compensation for unfair competition.
In April 2023, NCSoft had filed a lawsuit claiming that ArcheAge War’s user interface and the majority of its systems (see above) had been copied from its own MMORPG, Lineage 2M. NCSoft requested suspension of the ArcheAge War service and a billion won in damages.
The court found that the class-related progression system in “Lineage 2M” lacked originality, stating that it was a modification of certain mechanics from previous games such as Ragnarok M (2018) and V4 (2019). Furthermore, the court ruled that “even if originality or novelty are recognized as ideas […], item reinforcement systems, collection systems and PvP (player vs. player) rules are not subject to copyright protection”.
During the trial, NCSoft argued that the selection, arrangement, and combination of each component induce a creative individuality. However, the court disagreed, stating that “the evidence presented alone is insufficient to recognize that plaintiff’s game (Lineage 2M) possesses a creative individuality that distinguishes it from other prior games and merits copyright protection.”
With regard to NCSoft’s claim that Kakao Games’ actions constitute unfair competition, the court also rejected that claim, stating, “It appears that the common ground rules, methods of progression and specific methods of expression of the plaintiff’s and defendant’s games cannot be monopolized by any specific party.”
A turning point
The verdict handed down by the Seoul court doesn’t make NCSoft’s already tense situation any brighter. While Throne and Liberty hasn’t met the expected success in South Korea, the Western population is beginning to decline dangerously too. Although the MMORPG have some potential in 2025, for instance through the launch of Talandre, we know how difficult it is to get back into this kind of game after a break, given their progression and monetization systems (which tend to quickly erase past efforts).
On the other hand, Aion 2, due for release in 2025 on mobile and PC, offers little reassurance. Indeed, it takes a 180° turn from the first opus, which was largely focused on PvP and dedicated to PC players. This is no longer the case with Aion 2, which has been announced as purely PvE MMORPG and will rather focus on accessibility. What’s more, NCSoft’s other known prospects – Tactan, Project LLL, and even the rumored Lion’s Arch: GuildWars Arena – are much longer-term, definitely not expected for 2025.
All of which does little to comfort investors. It will indeed be a difficult year for NCSoft. Let’s hope that this restructuring (as they call it) will at least save the day (the year) and enable the company to bounce back until more successful projects releases.